• 前国际货币基金组织（IMF）官员表示，今年美元暴跌与黄金飙升表明，金融市场对特朗普政府的政策不满。他警告称，除非政策方向出现重大转变，否则美国应为明年国会中期选举前可能爆发的金融危机做好准备。
前国际货币基金组织政策发展与审查部副主任德斯蒙德·拉赫曼（Desmond Lachman）表示，全球对美元的信心正在丧失，美国明年或将遭遇金融危机。
他在周一发表于世界报业辛迪加的专栏文章中指出，在唐纳德·特朗普开始第二个总统任期之前，美国的财政状况便已处于岌岌可危的境地。
特朗普刚刚签署的巨额法案中的减税措施将使赤字增加数万亿美元。与此同时，这位美国企业研究院（American Enterprise Institute）高级研究员解释道，特朗普推行的关税政策以及向美联储施压要求降息的行为，加剧了市场对通胀的担忧，进一步削弱了对美元的信心。
他补充道：“再加上特朗普公然无视法治，市场认为没有理由继续信任美国。”
在他看来，这正是今年上半年美元对其他主要货币汇率下跌10%、创下1953年以来最差纪录的原因。
尽管关税政策以及美国与其他主要经济体之间更大的利差通常会推高美元，但美元仍出现了暴跌。
拉赫曼表示，今年黄金涨幅逾25%是市场对美国信心崩塌的又一信号，而美国国债收益率在市场动荡之际仍居高不下，同样也是这一情况的有力印证。
所有这些都清楚地表明，金融市场对特朗普政府的经济政策投出了不信任票。
“特朗普的症结在于，与政客不同，市场既无法被施压，也不能经由初选被罢免，”他说，指的是通过初选将不服从的议员赶下台的威胁手段。“如果他拒绝听从投资者的警告——目前来看这种可能性颇高——美国应为明年中期选举前美元和债券市场危机做好准备。世界容忍美国财政入不敷出的日子正迅速走向终结。”
诚然，华尔街诸多人士一直围绕关税、通胀、不断扩大的赤字、难以持续的债务、美元以及美国国债需求发出警示。
但到目前为止，关税尚未引发通胀飙升，而关税收入今年有望达到3000亿美元。
尽管有人警告称“债券义警”会因对财政政策不满而要求提高债券收益率，但这一情形并未出现。事实上，近期国债拍卖情况显示，当下市场对美国债务的需求依旧十分强劲。
此外，许多分析师认为，尽管有人试图推动其他货币成为替代之选，但美元仍将保持其作为全球主要储备货币的地位。
资本集团（Capital Group）固定收益投资组合经理约翰·奎因（John Queen）在最近的一份报告中指出，债券市场正在适应更高的债务水平，并补充称，利率市场在风险定价方面“极为高效”。
尽管他对债务规模及其对借贷成本的影响表示担忧，但尚不清楚这些担忧何时会成为现实。
“许多人预测灾难即将来临，总有一天，他们中的某一位会言中，”奎因写道。“遗憾的是，这不过是他们的臆测，所以我不会做出这般预测。相反，我认为市场善于为这些担忧定价。”（财富中文网）
译者：中慧言-王芳
• The dollar’s plunge and gold’s surge this year are signs that financial markets are not pleased with the Trump administration’s policies, according to a former IMF official. Unless there is a major course correction, the U.S. should brace for a financial crisis leading up to congressional midterm elections next year, he warned.
The world is losing faith in the dollar, and the U.S. could suffer a financial crisis next year, according to Desmond Lachman, a former deputy director of the International Monetary Fund’s Policy Development and Review Department.
In a Project Syndicate column on Monday, he noted that the U.S. fiscal situation was already shaky before President Donald Trump began his second term.
But his tax cuts in the megabill that was just signed into law will add trillions to the deficit. Meanwhile, his tariffs and pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower rates have further weakened confidence in the dollar by stoking inflation concerns, Lachman, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, explained.
“Add to that Trump’s apparent disregard for the rule of law, and markets see little reason to trust the US,” he added.
In his view, that’s why the dollar sank 10% against other top global currencies in the first half of the year, marking the greenback’s worst such performance since 1953.
The plunge came despite the tariffs and the wider premium between U.S. rates and those of other top economies, which would normally boost the dollar.
Gold’s surge of more than 25% this year is another sign of collapsing market confidence in the U.S., as is Treasury yields remaining elevated despite market turbulence, Lachman said.
That all adds up to a very clear vote of no confidence from financial markets in the Trump administration’s economic policies.
“The problem for Trump is that, unlike politicians, markets cannot be pressured or primaried,” he said, referring to the threat of ousting disobedient lawmakers via primary elections. “If he refuses to heed investors’ warnings, as seems likely, the US should brace for a dollar and bond-market crisis in the run-up to next year’s midterm elections. The days of the world letting America live beyond its means are rapidly coming to an end.”
To be sure, many on Wall Street have been sounding alarms about tariffs, inflation, widening deficits, unsustainable debt, the dollar and demand for U.S. Treasuries.
But so far, tariffs have failed to trigger a spike in inflation, while the revenue collected from the duties is on pace to reach $300 billion this year.
And despite warnings that “bond vigilantes” will express displeasure with fiscal policies by demanding higher yields on bonds, that has yet to materialize. In fact, recent Treasury auctions have shown there remains healthy demand for U.S. debt, for now.
In addition, many analysts see the dollar retaining its status as the world’s primary reserve currency despite attempts to push alternatives.
John Queen, fixed income portfolio manager at Capital Group, said in a recent note that bond markets are adapting to higher debt levels, adding that the interest rate market is “incredibly efficient” at pricing in risks.
While he is concerned about the size of the debt and its impact on borrowing costs, it’s unknown when those worries will become reality.
“Many people have predicted that catastrophe is right around the corner and, someday, one of them is going to be right,” Queen wrote. “Unfortunately, they are just guessing, so I am not going to predict that. I am instead going to say that I think the market is good at pricing in those concerns.”