传奇投资人雷·达利欧警告称，穆迪近期对美国信用评级的调降仅反映出债券持有者当前承受的部分风险。
达利欧在X平台发文称：“关于美国债务降级，需知信用评级仅评价了政府违约风险，因而低估了信用风险。”
上周，评级机构穆迪将美国评级从AAA下调至Aa1，理由是美国国债膨胀导致财政状况日益恶化。在穆迪下调评级后，美国在三大评级机构中彻底失去最高评级。
穆迪表示，目前国会审议的预算法案只会进一步增加美国本就高企的债务与利息支出。
关于美国债务降级，需知信用评级仅评价了政府违约风险，因而低估了信用风险。评级未涵盖负债国通过印钞偿债所带来的更大风险——此举将导致债券持有者……
——雷·达利欧 (@RayDalio) ，2025年5月19日
穆迪在声明中表示：“我们认为当前正在审议的财政提案不会在未来几年实质性地削减开支和缩小赤字。”
然而，尽管穆迪认为美国违约拒绝偿债的情景目前不太可能出现，但达利欧认为存在一个更大的潜在风险。他指出，美国失去顶级评级甚至未涵盖更危险的威胁：通过印钞偿债。
达利欧强调：“评级未涵盖负债国通过印钞偿债所带来的更大风险——此举将导致债券持有者因所获资金的购买力下降（而非偿付金额减少）而蒙受损失。”
若美国单纯选择通过增发美元偿债，而非削减其他开支或增加财政收入，货币供应量激增将引发通胀。在此情形下，债券持有者获得的收益因美元泛滥稀释，实际价值将大打折扣。
达利欧写道：“换言之，对于关注货币价值的人而言，美国政府债务风险比评级机构所传达的风险程度更为严重。”
此次信用降级引发债市抛售潮，30年期美债收益率周一突破5%。这标志着美国财政信誉遭受打击，尽管只是象征意义上的打击，但也显示其作为投资者避风港的吸引力正在减弱。
美债收益率上次突破5%发生在2025年4月2日特朗普总统宣布对等关税之后，当时引发了股市和债市的重大抛售。最终特朗普暂缓关税政策，称投资者变得“有些急躁，有点恐慌”的情绪。（财富中文网）
译者：刘进龙
审校：汪皓
Legendary investor Ray Dalio warned that Moody’s recent downgrade of the U.S.’s credit rating only captures a portion of the risks bondholders now face.
Regarding “the U.S. debt downgrade, you should know that credit ratings understate credit risks because they only rate the risk of the government not paying its debt,” Dalio wrote in a post on X.
Last week, the credit ratings agency Moody’s cut the U.S. rating from AAA to Aa1, citing a worsening fiscal picture because of the ballooning national debt. After Moody’s downgrade, the U.S. not longer has a top rating at any of the Big Three credit ratings agencies.
The current budget bill being debated in Congress would only increase the U.S.’s already mounting debt and interest payments, Moody’s said.
Re the U.S. debt downgrade, you should know that credit ratings understate credit risks because they only rate the risk of the government not paying its debt. They don’t include the greater risk that the countries in debt will print money to pay their debts thus causing holders…
— Ray Dalio (@RayDalio) May 19, 2025
“We do not believe that material multi-year reductions in mandatory spending and deficits will result from current fiscal proposals under consideration,” the agency wrote in a statement.
Dalio, though, sees a greater potential risk than the U.S. not paying its debts, which is an unlikely scenario at the moment, according to Moody’s. He argues the U.S.’s demotion from the top rung of credit ratings doesn’t even include the more dangerous threat: printing money to pay off the debts.
“They don’t include the greater risk that the countries in debt will print money to pay their debts thus causing holders of the bonds to suffer losses from the decreased value of the money they’re getting (rather than from the decreased quantity of money they’re getting),” Dalio said.
If the U.S. were merely to print more dollars in order to service its debt, rather than decreasing spending elsewhere or increasing government revenues, the increase in the money supply would lead to inflation. In that case, the money bond holders would earn from their yields would be worth less, by virtue of being diluted with all the extra dollars, than they would have been otherwise.
“Said differently, for those who care about the value of their money, the risks for U.S. government debt are greater than the rating agencies are conveying,” Dalio wrote.
The credit downgrade sparked a sell-off in the bond market, with yields on 30-year Treasuries rising above 5% Monday. It marks a blow—however symbolic—to the U.S.’s fiscal reputation, indicating it’s less appealing as a safe haven for investors.
The last time bond yields were north of 5% was in the immediate aftermath of President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement on April 2, which induced a major sell-off in both equities and bonds. Eventually Trump paused his policy, saying that investors had gotten “a little bit yippy, a little bit afraid.”