科技企业家兼投资人维诺德·科斯拉预测，到2030年，AI将使80%的高价值工作岗位自动化，这一预言恰逢《财富》美国500强企业面临重大变革时期。科斯拉在播客节目《Uncapped With Jack Altman》关于诸多话题的采访中，分享了他对未来的预测。作为风险投资家以及Square和Instacart等公司的早期投资人，科斯拉为商界领袖如何应对未来前所未有的变革提供了建议。西尔斯（Sears）和玩具反斗城（Toys “R” Us）等公司曾在数字化压力下倒闭，但科斯拉警告称，随着AI改写行业规则，2030年代将见证巨头的“加速消亡”。
以下内容概述了科斯拉关于AI、经济等领域所做的主要预测。
核心观点
• 前所未有的颠覆时代：科斯拉将当前的技术周期描述为“疯狂而狂热的”。他表示：“我从未见过这样的周期……在AI的驱动下，几乎每一份工作都在被重塑，每一件实体事物都在被重构，变得截然不同。”他将变革的规模与1960年代相比，指出：“我们将在如此短的时间内见证一场巨变，社会将如何适应变革，这几乎难以想象。”
• AI与工作的终结：科斯拉预测：“在未来五年内，人类能做的任何具有经济价值的工作，AI将能完成其中的80%……所有工作中80%可由AI完成。”他认为到2040年，“工作的必要性将消失。人们工作将出于兴趣，而非为了支付房贷。”
• 《财富》美国500强迎来变革：他预测现有的大公司将加速消亡：“我的一个预测是，2030年代《财富》美国500强企业的消亡速度将超过以往任何时期……这种转变不会来自现有公司，将有新入局者颠覆这一切。”
行业预测
• 医疗保健：“如果所有医学专业知识都免费……你将拥有数量不限的初级保健医生、肿瘤学家、胃肠病学家、心理健康治疗师……你会如何重新设计医疗保健系统？”科斯拉认为，既得利益和监管障碍将减缓（但不会阻止）AI驱动的变革。
• 机器人技术：他预测：“到2030年代，几乎每个人家中都会拥有人形机器人……可能从做饭等特定功能开始。”主要瓶颈并非硬件，而是智能。
• 能源：科斯拉“对能源行业非常乐观”，尤其是核聚变和超高温地热，他认为这些技术可能使电力“比天然气还便宜”。
给企业家的建议
• 风险投资与创新理念：科斯拉强调创始人驱动的创新：“唯有创新——我几乎想不出多少颠覆性创新是来自大公司或行业内部人士的重大案例……专家们对未来的预测表现糟糕；他们只是外推过去。企业家们创造他们想要的未来。”
• 关于风险与影响：“大多数人降低风险以提高成功概率。我反其道而行之：我首先考虑的是成功的重大影响。我不在乎失败的概率。”（财富中文网）
免责声明：在本报道中，《财富》杂志使用生成式AI协助完成初稿。编辑在发布前已核实信息的准确性。
译者：刘进龙
审校：汪皓
Tech entrepreneur and investor Vinod Khosla’s prediction of AI automating 80% of high-value jobs by 2030 coincides with a reckoning for Fortune 500 companies. Khosla shared his predictions for the future in a wide-ranging interview on the Uncapped With Jack Altman podcast. As a venture capitalist and early investor in companies like Square and Instacart, Khosla offered advice for business leaders on navigating unprecedented changes ahead. Companies like Sears and Toys “R” Us collapsed under digital pressure, but Khosla warns the 2030s will see a “faster demise” of giants as AI rewrites industry rules.
See below for an overview of Khosla’s major predictions for AI, the economy, and more.
Key takeaways
• Era of unprecedented disruption: Khosla describes the current technology cycle as “crazy and frenetic,” stating, “I’ve never seen a cycle like this…almost every job is being reinvented, every material thing is being reinvented differently with AI as a driver.” He compares the scale of change to the 1960s, noting, “We’re going to see this large change in such a short time, it’s almost hard to imagine how society adjusts.”
• AI and the end of work: Khosla predicts, “Within the next five years, any economically valuable job humans can do, AI will be able to do 80% of it…80% of all jobs can be done by an AI.” He believes by 2040, “the need to work will go away. People will work on things because they want to, not because they need to pay their mortgage.”
• Disruption of the Fortune 500: He forecasts a dramatic acceleration in the demise of large incumbent companies: “One of my predictions is the 2030s will see a faster rate of demise of Fortune 500 companies than we’ve ever seen…that transition won’t happen from existing companies. Somebody new will reinvent this.”
Predictions by sector
• Health care: “If all medical expertise is free…you have an unlimited number of primary care doctors, oncologists, gastroenterologists, mental health therapists…how would you redesign the health care system?” Khosla argues that entrenched interests and regulatory barriers will slow—but not stop—AI-driven transformation.
• Robotics: He predicts that “almost everybody in the 2030s will have a humanoid robot at home…probably starting with something narrow like doing your cooking for you.” The main bottleneck is not hardware, but intelligence.
• Energy: Khosla is “very bullish about energy,” especially fusion and super-hot geothermal, which he believes could make power “cheaper than natural gas.”
Advice for entrepreneurs
• Philosophy on venture and innovation: Khosla emphasizes founder-driven innovation: “Innovation only—I can’t think of very many large examples where large innovation came from somebody who was large or in the business…experts are terrible at predicting the future; they extrapolate the past. Entrepreneurs invent the future they want.”
• On risk and impact: “Most people reduce risk to increase the probability of success. I do the opposite: Start with [the] high consequences of success. I don’t care about the probability of failure.”
Disclaimer: For this story, Fortune used generative AI to help with an initial draft. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing.