5月2日，美国洛杉矶港。图片来源：Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images
• RSM会计师事务所首席经济学家约瑟夫・布鲁苏埃拉斯认为，特朗普政府的贸易政策将导致美国物价上涨，并导致供应链相关工人失业，最终将美国经济推向衰退。通胀率和失业率是央行调控的两个关键指标，虽然特朗普的关税政策对这两个指标都造成了威胁，但美联储本周三预计仍将维持当前利率不变。
关税引发的衰退可能会首先在美国沿海地区爆发。RSM首席经济学家约瑟夫・布鲁苏埃拉斯在本周一发表的一篇文章中指出：“这场危机将从洛杉矶的码头开始爆发。”
布鲁苏埃拉斯在文章中指出，由于美国总统特朗普的关税政策朝令夕改，导致人民生活成本飙升，经济不确定性增加，结果必然会导致衰退。他表示，“关税是一笔被错误地强加到企业和家庭身上的消费税，而且它很快就会导致经济增长过早且不必要地被终止” 。
布鲁苏埃拉斯认为，接下来，美国很快会出现恶性通胀和失业率上涨。
从4月初开始，美国政府特朗普全面开打关税战。后来他宣布对其中部分关税实施暂缓，以推动贸易谈判，然后又对其他国家征收了一揽子关税，特别是对中国征收了极高关税。中国对此进行了对等反制，中美两个全球最大经济体的贸易关系变得骤然紧张起来。美国财长斯科特・贝森特也表示，当前中美经贸关系的紧张局面是不能长期持续下去。但是贝森特坦承，连他也不清楚中美之间何时能够达成贸易协议。
洛杉矶港执行董事吉恩・塞罗卡在早些时候表示，洛杉矶港近一半的业务都是来自中国，因此他预计洛杉矶港的进口量会出现下降。
布鲁苏埃拉斯在文章中写道：“这些政策的代价将首先在港口显现，随后蔓延至整个经济领域。” 他指出，塞罗卡之前曾预计过洛杉矶港的进口量会下降，受影响的进口量可能超过港口常规吞吐量的三分之一。布鲁苏埃拉斯还指出，就算还有其他进口商口到港，这些商品的成本也会更高，也就是说，会有更高成本被转嫁到消费者身上。更不用说进口货运量的减少意味着码头工人、卡车司机以及其他供应链相关人员的收入将会降低。进一步的连锁反应，就是整条供应链上的失业率上升。
布鲁苏埃拉斯表示：“这些完全符合又一次贸易冲击的特征，它将导致就业受损，家庭收入下降，进而把美国经济推向衰退。”他还指出，此前美国也有过几次供应链扰乱的情况，导致运往洛杉矶港和长滩港的进口货运量暴跌，最终对美国经济造成了损害——比如2018年的贸易战，2020年的新冠疫情等。
虽然特朗普的关税政策导致股票和债券市场的抛售以及市场信心的下降（这种情况最近在一定程度上已经自行得到缓解），但布鲁苏埃拉斯认为，下一步，码头工人的失业率会首先上升，然后波及卡车司机和其他供应链工人。而且由于商品短缺，物价也会跟着上涨。“随后需求将会出现下降，最终导致美国经济出现40年未有的滞胀局面。”
美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔也曾警告称，由于特朗普政府的关税政策，美国经济很有可能陷入滞胀，换言之就是出现高通胀与经济增长停滞并存的糟糕局面。鲍威尔表示，高关税不仅会引发通货膨胀，还会使经济增长放缓。这也正是美联储为何要在利率问题上采取观望态度。这也是为什么几乎所有人都认为美联储本周三不会作出利率调整。作为美国的央行，美联储肩负着双重使命：稳定物价和促进最大化就业。而布鲁苏埃拉斯的文章表明，关税对这两个方面都构成了严峻威胁。（财富中文网）
译者：朴成奎
• A tariff-induced recession may begin in Los Angeles before metastasizing: The administration’s trade policies will result in rising prices and unemployment among supply-chain related workers, which will eventually push the economy into recession territory, according to RSM chief economist Joseph Brusuelas. Still, while the tariffs appear to threaten both parts of the central bank’s dual mandate, the Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates untouched Wednesday.
A tariff-induced recession may begin on the coast. “The recession will start on the docks of Los Angeles,” RSM chief economist Joseph Brusuelas wrote in a note published Monday.
It’ll be a response to all the uncertainty because of the president’s on-again, off-again tariffs that’ll only cost people more money, he wrote—calling tariffs “a misapplied consumption tax on households and businesses that will soon cause a premature and unnecessary end to economic expansion.”
What comes next? Hotter inflation and increasing unemployment, according to Brusuelas.
In early April, President Donald Trump unveiled a sweeping tariff agenda. He later put some tariffs on ice to talk deals and instead placed a blanket tax on other countries, and a very hefty tax on China. China retaliated, so trade is strained among the two largest economies. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has put the onus on China to de-escalate the trade war because it sells more to America than the other way around, and called the tariffs unsustainable. Still, it’s unclear when a U.S.-China trade deal would occur because negotiations between the two have not begun, according to Bessent.
The Port of Los Angeles anticipates a drop-off in imports because just under half of the port’s business emanates from China, its executive director Gene Seroka said earlier.
“The price of those policies will be first paid at the ports and then spread to the rest of the economy,” Brusuelas wrote, noting Seroka’s prior comments on an anticipated drop in imports, totaling more than a third of typical cargo traffic. What does come in will cost more, and that will mean higher prices for consumers, Brusuelas explained. Not to mention, less traffic could mean a decline in dockworkers, truckers, and others’ earnings—and later, an increase in unemployment among supply-chain-related occupations.
“This has all the markings of yet another trade shock, resulting in a loss of employment and household income that will push the U.S. economy into recession,” he wrote. Brusuelas pointed to other recent occasions that disrupted supply chains and resulted in a plunge in container shipments to the Los Angeles and Long Beach ports, and subsequent economic damage: a trade war in 2018, the 2020 pandemic, and China’s 2022 zero-COVID policy.
While Trump’s tariffs led to a selloff in the stock and bond markets and a loss in confidence (which appears to have somewhat resolved itself), Brusuelas suspects dockworkers’ unemployment to rise before spreading to truckers and other supply-chain workers, and prices to increase due to a shortage of goods. “Demand will then drop, leading to a return of stagflation, not seen in more than 40 years,” he wrote.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned of a looming threat of stagflation, a nasty mix of elevated inflation and stagnant growth, because of the administration’s tariffs. Tariffs would not only induce inflation, but slow the economy, he said. It’s why the central bank is taking a wait-and-see approach, and why almost everyone sees the Fed leaving interest rates untouched Wednesday. The Fed has a dual mandate: stable prices and maximum employment. Tariffs threaten both, according to Brusuelas.