• 自20世纪80年代中期以来，得益于低通胀和美元霸主地位，长期利率总体呈稳步下降趋势。然而，赤字担忧和全球贸易增速放缓或持续对美债收益率构成上行压力。
美国共和党“大而美”法案里提出的减税举措，正促使投资者像2007年那样抛售美债。然而，此次长期债券收益率近期的大幅飙升，或许并非短暂上扬，而是预示着美国借款人未来将面临的利率走势。
以10年期美债收益率为例——它是抵押贷款、小企业贷款及其他常见消费和企业借贷的基准。如下图所示，尽管在全球金融危机前美联储加息阶段以及新冠疫情后通胀飙升时期，该收益率出现过短暂飙升，但自80年代中期以来，其总体呈稳步下降趋势。
不过，摩根士丹利投资管理公司（Morgan Stanley Investment Management）投资组合解决方案部门首席投资官吉姆·卡隆（Jim Caron）认为，利率不会回落到历史低点。
他对《财富》杂志表示：“要适应更高的收益率。我的意思是，我们必须适应更陡峭的（收益率）曲线，也必须适应通胀率不会长期低于目标水平。”
对物价持续攀升感到厌倦的选民助力唐纳德·特朗普再次入主白宫，这位总统承诺降低美国民众的借贷成本。尽管特朗普多次批评美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔和美联储维持利率不变的做法，但财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）表示，特朗普政府正专注于推动自由浮动的10年期国债收益率下行。
然而，总统加征关税以及推动减税的举措引发了民众对通胀卷土重来和联邦赤字激增的担忧，进而导致利率飙升。周三，30年期美债收益率自近两年来首次收于5%以上，达到2007年春季以来的最高水平。与此同时，10年期国债收益率短暂突破4.6%。
卡隆表示：“目前美债收益率融入了额外的风险溢价。这是有充分理由的。”
关税与减税推高收益率
疫情后，收益率首次走高，这是因为美联储为对抗通胀而采取加息举措，致使现有债券的回报率相较于新发行债券而言，吸引力大打折扣，从而推高了债券收益率。去年，随着物价增速放缓，美联储终于开始降息，交易员起初预期今年降息行动仍会持续。
然而，鲍威尔明确表示，他和同事们正静候关税对经济影响的进一步明晰，之后再采取相应行动。
“市场开始重新评估美联储近期及长期可能采取的行动。”联博（AllianceBernstein）收益策略首席投资组合经理马特·谢里丹（Matt Sheridan）向《财富》杂志表示。
与此同时，卡隆认为关税不会引发经济衰退，而经济衰退可能会促使美联储降息。然而，众所周知，36万亿美元的国债正朝着不可持续的方向发展，尤其是在特朗普政府首个任期以及拜登政府任内巨额支出的背景下。
白宫发言人库什·德赛（Kush Desai）在一份声明中表示：“拜登政府不计后果的财政政策导致国债飙升、通胀加剧，迫使美联储加息，进而推高了普通美国民众和联邦政府的借贷成本。债券收益率攀升更凸显了通过‘大而美法案’——近30年来规模最大的支出削减法案——来整顿财政秩序、在特朗普总统引领下推动美国经济强劲复苏的重要性。”
根据国会预算办公室的数据，2025财年联邦赤字将达1.9万亿美元，占国内生产总值的6.2%，这是美国历史上除战争或经济衰退时期外最严重的赤字缺口。
延长并扩大特朗普2017年推出的减税政策可能无济于事。国会预算办公室预测，周四在众议院以微弱优势通过的“大而美法案”将在2034年前使赤字增加3.8万亿美元。
参议院面临的斗争将更为棘手，共和党财政鹰派可能会拥有更大的话语权。不过，联博的谢里丹指出，当某一政党同时掌控国会与总统职位时，维持巨额赤字会更为容易。
他补充道，市场正愈发担忧共和党会陷入这种“诱惑”之中。上周，穆迪（Moody’s）成为最后一家将美国债务评级从最高评级下调的主要信用评级机构，下调理由正是对赤字的忧虑。
不过，有人认为所谓的“债券义警”最终可能会迫使特朗普采取相关行动。这种观点认为，由于借贷成本突然飙升带来阵痛，因此固定收益投资者能够通过抛售国债来向政客施压，促使其恪守财政纪律。
通胀与美元霸主地位的作用
不过，卡隆并不认为收益率上升只是暂时现象。他指出，借贷成本自20世纪80年代以来持续下降，这在很大程度上归因于通胀率下降且基本维持在低位。他将此主要归因于全球化的影响，来自中国等增长型经济体的廉价商品对物价起到了抑制作用。
他说：“我们今天看到的情况恰恰相反。”
这不仅仅是因为特朗普将关税税率提高到二战以来的最高水平。
卡隆称：“这更多源于制造业的在岸外包。从国家安全角度来看，供应链更令人担忧。”
与此同时，得益于美元的世界储备货币地位，美国的借贷利率远低于其基本面本应允许的水平。不过，债务担忧不断加剧以及全球贸易持续萎缩，可能会削弱市场对美债的需求，进而推高债券收益率。
谢里丹表示：“我认为投资者正提出一系列令人不安的问题。”
这些问题的答案可能会在美国整体经济领域引发连锁反应。（财富中文网）
译者：中慧言-王芳
• Long-term interest rates have mostly been in steady decline since the mid-1980s thanks to low inflation and the supremacy of the U.S. dollar. Deficit concerns and a slowdown in global trade, however, might continue exerting upward pressure on Treasury yields.
Proposed tax cuts in the GOP’s “big, beautiful” bill have investors dumping Treasuries like it’s 2007. This time, however, the recent spike in long-term bond yields might be less of a momentary uptick than a sign of what’s to come for American borrowers.
Take the 10-year Treasury yield, the benchmark for mortgages, loans to small businesses, and other common types of consumer and corporate borrowing. As the chart below shows, it has mostly been in steady decline since the mid-1980s, despite brief surges when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates before the Global Financial Crisis and after inflation surged following the COVID-19 pandemic.
But Jim Caron, chief investment officer for the portfolio solutions group at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, doesn’t see rates coming back down to historic lows.
“Get used to higher yields,” he told Fortune. “I mean, we have to get used to a steeper [yield] curve, and we have to get used to inflation not sitting below target for an extended period of time.”
Voters fed up with rising prices helped hand Donald Trump a second stint in the White House, and the president has pledged to lower borrowing costs for Americans. Despite his repeated criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the central bank for holding interest rates steady, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said the Trump administration is focused on seeing the free-floating 10-year yield decline.
The president’s tariffs and push for tax cuts, however, have stoked fears about an inflation resurgence and a ballooning federal deficit, causing rates to jump. The 30-year Treasury yield closed above 5% Wednesday for the first time in nearly two years, hitting its highest level since the spring of 2007. The yield on the 10-year, meanwhile, briefly rose above 4.6%.
“There’s an additional risk premium that’s being attached to Treasury yields right now,” Caron said, “for good reason.”
Tariffs, tax cuts push yields higher
Yields first moved higher after the pandemic as the Fed raised interest rates to fight inflation, pushing bond yields up as the return on existing bonds became less attractive relative to new debt. The central bank then finally began cutting rates last year as price growth eased, and traders initially expected more of the same this year.
Powell, however, has made clear he and his colleagues are waiting for clarity on how tariffs impact the economy before making a move.
“Markets are starting to reprice what the Fed is going to do here in the near term and what the Fed might potentially do in the long term,” Matt Sheridan, lead portfolio manager for income strategies at AllianceBernstein, told Fortune.
Caron, meanwhile, doesn’t see tariffs causing a recession, which would presumably make the Fed cut rates. It’s no secret, however, that the $36 trillion national debt is on an unsustainable path, particularly after the lavish spending of the first Trump and Biden administrations.
“The Biden administration’s reckless fiscal policies ran up our national debt and fueled inflation, forcing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates and borrowing costs for both everyday Americans and the federal government,” White House spokesman Kush Desai said in a statement. “Rising bond yields only underscore the importance of passing The One, Big, Beautiful Bill—the largest spending reduction in nearly 30 years—to get our fiscal house in order and turbocharge America’s economic resurgence under President Trump.”
According to the Congressional Budget Office, the federal deficit for the 2025 fiscal year is $1.9 trillion, or 6.2% of GDP, the deepest shortfall in the country’s history outside of a war or recession.
Extending and expanding Trump’s 2017 tax cuts likely won’t help. The CBO projects the “One, Big, Beautiful Bill” that narrowly passed in the House Thursday will add $3.8 trillion to the deficit through 2034.
A tougher fight awaits in the Senate, where Republican fiscal hawks might have more of a say. Running a big deficit is easier, however, when one party controls Congress and the presidency, Sheridan said.
Markets, he added, are increasingly nervous Republicans will fall into that temptation. Moody’s cited deficit concerns when it became the final major credit agency to downgrade U.S. debt from its top rung of borrowers last week.
Some believe so-called bond vigilantes could ultimately force Trump’s hand, though. Since sudden, dramatic increases in borrowing costs can be painful, the theory goes, fixed-income investors can pressure politicians to be more disciplined by unloading government debt.
The role of inflation and U.S. dollar supremacy
Caron, however, doesn’t see rising yields as a momentary phenomenon. Borrowing costs have fallen since the 1980s, he said, in large part because inflation declined and mostly stayed low. He attributes much of that to globalization, with cheaper goods from growing economies like China keeping a lid on prices.
“What we’re seeing today is the exact opposite,” he said.
And that’s not just because Trump has hiked tariff rates to their highest level since World War II.
“It’s more onshoring of manufacturing,” Caron said. “It’s more worry about supply chains from a national-security standpoint.”
Meanwhile, the U.S. borrows at much better rates than its underlying finances would normally allow, thanks to the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency. Rising debt concerns and a decline in global trade, however, could reduce demand for Treasuries, pushing yields higher.
“There’s a whole host of kind of uncomfortable questions that I think investors are asking,” Sheridan said.
The answers could ripple through the entire U.S. economy.