特朗普政府预计，随着其经济议程的成效逐步显现，美国经济在经历第一季度萎缩后，将在未来12个月内迎来反弹。
在上周五接受彭博电视台广泛采访时，财政部长斯科特·贝森特预测，政府的促增长贸易政策、减税议程及放松监管措施将迅速带动经济活动升温。在2024年竞选期间，特朗普承诺改善中低收入选民（身处被全球化浪潮所遗落的社区）的生活。
贝森特称：“我确信，到明年此时，我们的经济增速将超过3%，且年底前便会迎来转机。”
他唯一担忧的是，法院与民主党议员或许会从中掣肘，比如为能源需求庞大的人工智能数据中心持续繁荣提供动力的新公用事业项目，在加速发放许可这一环节上遭遇阻碍。
今年前三个月，美国经济按年率计算萎缩了0.3%，原因是企业在特朗普政府征收惩罚性关税前大量囤积进口商品。随后，《财富》杂志和德勤（Deloitte）4月对首席执行官们进行的调查显示，他们对全球前景的悲观情绪飙升。
在采访中，贝森特提及政府目前正着力推进多项关键经济议题，如被特朗普称为“大而美法案”的减税方案。
削减财政赤字在短期内仍具有挑战性
贝森特表示，该法案中能加速经济增长的一大关键要素在于，允许国内制造商对设备进行全额费用化处理，而非分期折旧，从而降低应纳税所得额。
他补充称，这与计划削减药品成本所节省的开支相结合，将降低赤字在整体经济中的占比。
贝森特表示：“特朗普总统针对处方药定价提出了极为大胆的提案，这有望为美国卫生与公众服务部节省巨额资金。”
即便如此，国会预算办公室预估，总体成本将使赤字累计增加3.8万亿美元。贝森特承认，即便在乐观情形下，明年预算赤字也可能大幅超出他所设定的占国内生产总值3%的目标。
他表示：“我们并非一夜之间陷入这般困境，也不可能明天就解决问题。我所说的是到2028年实现赤字占国内生产总值3%的目标。”
贝森特对未来两周内达成多项新贸易协议持乐观态度
财政部长个人肩负着主导与美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔（Jamieson Greer）共同推进贸易谈判的责任。在暂停所谓的“对等”关税（这一说法并不准确，因为它们基于贸易逆差而非对美国商品征收的进口税）之后，政府承诺在90天内达成90项协议。到目前为止，仅与英国首相基尔·斯塔默（Keir Starmer）达成了一项协议，专家们批评该协议缺乏具体细节。
不过，据财政部长称，即将达成更多协议。
贝森特表示：“我们有18个重要的贸易伙伴，所以大家真正应关注的是这些伙伴。我们已与英国达成一项协议，我预感未来几周将宣布几项重大协议。”
德国将在特朗普与欧盟的贸易冲突中扮演关键角色
然而，欧盟似乎是个例外。白宫对欧盟流露出明显不满，单方面宣布将于下月初对所有进口商品征收50%的关税。这一税率超出特朗普本人声称的公平对等的20%，而且远在7月初90天暂停期结束之前。(在上周日与欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩（Ursula von der Leyen）通话后，特朗普将50%的关税时间推迟至6月9日。）
在这场冲突中，德国是关键角色，该国是严重依赖美国市场准入的主要出口国。特朗普与德国政府向来关系不佳，而副总统詹姆斯·戴维·万斯（JD Vance）在2月斥责德国政府排挤极右翼民族主义政党选择党（AfD），更是让这种紧张关系愈发剑拔弩张。
贝森特本周在加拿大举行的七国集团会议上与德国新任财政部长拉尔斯·克林贝尔（Lars Klingbeil）会面后，流露出乐观态度，并称赞了德国财政部长。
他表示：“对方反应非常积极。我认为新任总理默茨（Merz）将为美德关系重启带来契机，因此我非常乐观地认为，或许德国能助力欧盟在此方面取得进展。”
美国国债收益率持续走高
贝森特驳斥了“外国投资者对美国国债失去兴趣”的说法，称近期借贷成本攀升反映的是一种普遍趋势，这种趋势同样影响着其他国家国债的需求，日本便是其中之一。
在他看来，美国政府对数字资产的大力扶持或许能提振对美国主权债务的需求，预计随着稳定币供应量持续增长（以美债为储备），将带来2万亿美元的新增需求。
他表示，进一步的缓解措施或将于今年夏天落地，届时美联储、货币监理署以及联邦存款保险公司这些金融监管机构预计将批准对“补充杠杆率”（SLR）的调整。补充杠杆率规定，所有贷款机构无论风险状况如何，均须持有至少3%的资本以应对整体风险敞口，而系统重要性机构则适用5%的规则。
他直言：“银行因持有国债而受到惩罚。”在他看来，针对持有美国国债这类无风险资产收取费用毫无意义。
美国房贷巨头房利美和房地美私有化
特朗普近期力推让此前受政府支持的机构房利美（Fannie Mae）和房地美（Freddie Mac）进行股票上市（即推动其私有化）的想法。根据美国房地产经纪人协会（National Association of Realtors）的数据，这两家机构通过为银行向购房者发放的每10笔抵押贷款中约7笔提供担保，在美国房地产市场扮演着关键的“润滑剂”角色。在雷曼兄弟（Lehman Brothers）破产前数周，这两家机构于2008年9月被政府接管并实现国有化，以遏制危机进一步扩散。
贝森特表示，一旦政府的税收和贸易议程达成，便会将关注点转向这两家机构的部分私有化。他指出，关键前提在于政府能否以避免抵押贷款利率与无风险国债利差扩大的方式逐步削减自身所有权。
他表示：“存在几种可行办法，我们正在探索。”（财富中文网）
译者：中慧言-王芳
The Trump administration expects U.S. growth to bounce right back in the coming 12 months after a first-quarter contraction, as the benefits of its economic agenda takes root.
In a wide-ranging interview with Bloomberg Television on Friday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicted the combination of the administration’s pro-growth trade policies, tax cut agenda and deregulation would soon lead to a pickup in activity. During the 2024 campaign, Trump promised to improve the lives of lower and middle income voters in communities left behind by globalization.
“I expect certainly by this time next year we will be north of three [percent growth], and that we will be turning the corner toward the end of the year,” Bessent said.
The only concern he said he had was that courts and Democratic legislators might throw sand into the works, preventing for example the accelerated permitting needed to literally power the ongoing boom in energy-hungry AI data centers with new utility projects.
During the first three months of this year, the U.S. economy shrank at an annualised rate of 0.3% as businesses stocked up on imports in advance of punitive tariffs levied by the Trump administration. Pessimism over the global outlook subsequently soared among CEOs polled in April by Fortune and Deloitte.
During the interview, Bessent spoke about a number of key economic issues the administration is currently pushing, such as the tax cut package Trump calls the “one big, beautiful bill”.
Reducing fiscal deficit remains challenging in near term
One key aspect of the bill that can accelerate growth is the ability of domestic manufactures to fully expense equipment rather than depreciate it over time, lowering their taxable income, Bessent said.
That, combined with savings from a planned cut in the cost of pharmaceuticals, would reduce the deficit as a percentage of the overall economy, he added.
“President Trump has made this very bold proposal on prescription drug pricing which could save HHS substantial amounts of money,” Bessent said.
Nonetheless, there are estimates from the Congressional Budget Office that the overall cost will push deficits higher by a cumulative $3.8 trillion. Bessent acknowledged next year’s budget deficit could well exceed his 3% of GDP target even in an optimistic scenario.
“We didn’t get here overnight, we’re not going to get there tomorrow,” he said. “What I’ve talked about is something with a three in front of it by 2028.”
Bessent optimistic on slew of new trade deals in next two weeks
The Treasury secretary has personal responsibility for leading trade talks held in conjunction with U.S. trade representative Jamie Grierson. After hitting pause on the so-called “reciprocal” tariffs—a misnomer since they are based on deficits rather than import duties levied on U.S. goods—the administration promised 90 deals in 90 days. So far there’s only been one reached with U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer that experts criticized as thin on specifics.
More are on their way, however, according to the Treasury secretary.
“We have 18 important trading partners, so what everyone should really focus on are those,” Bessent said. “We’ve done a deal with the U.K., my sense is over the couple of weeks we’re going to have several large deals announced.”
Germany to play a key role in Trump’s EU trade conflict
One exception to that, however, appears to be the European Union. The White House voiced its clear frustration with Brussels by unilaterally announcing that 50% tariffs would be levied on all imported goods early next month. That level surpasses the 20% Trump himself claimed would be fair and reciprocal, and comes well before the 90-day pause is over in early July. (After a phone call with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Sunday, Trump delayed that 50% tariff until June 9.)
A key actor in the conflict is Germany, a major exporter heavily reliant on access to the U.S. market. Relations between Trump and the government in Berlin traditionally have been very poor—a fact not helped by vice-president JD Vance scolding the state in February for shutting out the far-right nationalist AfD party.
Bessent struck an optimistic tone, however, praising his German counterpart after a meeting this week with new finance minister Lars Klingbeil at the G7 meeting in Canada.
“He was very responsive. I think that the new chancellor, Merz, is going to give an opportunity for a U.S.-Germany reset, so I’m very optimistic that perhaps Germany can help push the EU forward here,” he said.
Persistently high Treasury yields
Bessent pushed back against the notion that foreign investors are losing appetite for U.S. Treasuries, arguing the recent rise in the cost of borrowing is reflective of a broader trend impacting demand for government bonds affecting other countries, including Japan.
He argued the administration’s vocal support for digital assets could lift demand for U.S. sovereign debt, estimating $2 trillion in fresh demand from a growing stablecoin supply that use Treasuries as a reserve.
Further relief could come this summer, he said, when financial regulators at the Federal Reserve, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation are expected to approve changes to the so-called Supplementary Leverage Ratio. The SLR requires all lenders to hold a minimum 3% of their capital against their overall exposure irrespective of risk-profile, with systemically important institutes subject to a 5% rule.
“Banks are being penalized for holding Treasuries,” he said, arguing charges imposed to hold a risk-free asset like U.S. government bonds makes little sense.
Privatisation of U.S. mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
Trump recently pushed the idea of floating shares in the formerly government-sponsored agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The duo played a key role greasing the wheels of the U.S. housing market by guaranteeing roughly seven out of every 10 U.S. mortgage loans that banks extend to a homeowners, according to the National Association of Realtors. Weeks before Lehman Brothers collapsed, both were seized in September 2008 and nationalized to prevent further contagion.
Bessent said the administration would turn its attention to their partial privatization once its tax and trade agendas were achieved. He said a key prerequisite would be whether the government could phase out ownership in such a way as to prevent the spread between rates on mortgages over risk-free Treasuries from widening.
“There are several ways to do it and we are exploring it,” he said.