图片来源：Halfpoint Images—Getty Images
尽管最近数月通胀有所降温，但这仍不足以缓解退休人员的担忧。他们几乎都担心积蓄会比预期更快地消耗殆尽。而且，由于唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）总统推行的影响面甚广的关税政策可能导致物价上涨，社会保障生活成本调整幅度可能降低，他们的担忧可能进一步加剧。
资产管理公司施罗德（Schroders）2025年美国退休调查显示，92%的退休人员表示担心通货膨胀会削弱其资产价值，该比例较去年的89%有所上升，成为他们列出的首要担忧。约45%的受访者表示退休后开支高于预期。
施罗德集团美国固定缴款业务主管黛布·博伊登（Deb Boyden）表示：“通胀数据虽有所好转，却并未缓解退休人员的担忧。住房、食品以及医疗保健等生活必需品价格的攀升，极大地削弱了退休人员的购买力与财务安全感。”
至少在短期内，情况似乎不太可能得到缓解。经济学家警告称，特朗普政府当前关税政策的后续影响可能导致通胀再次抬头。尽管目前尚无法确切说明关税政策的最终结果，包括关税税率具体多高、会针对哪些国家以及哪些商品，但据右倾的税务基金会（Tax Foundation）估计，已征收和计划征收的关税可能会导致美国普通家庭在2025年和2026年分别平均多缴纳1190美元和1462美元税款。事实上，像沃尔玛（Walmart）这样的商店已发出价格上涨预警。
这可能会让本已捉襟见肘的预算雪上加霜。许多即将退休和已经退休的人士，尤其是收入较低的人群，普遍存在退休储蓄缺口，即他们为退休生活积攒的资金与实际所需资金存在差距。据先锋集团（Vanguard）称，在所有尚未退休的婴儿潮一代中，约有70%的人可能无法维持退休前的生活水平。
博伊登表示：“鉴于潜在关税带来的不确定性，美国退休民众担忧物价上涨可能对其储蓄造成影响，这是可以理解的。这种普遍存在的忧虑为年轻一代敲响警钟：越早着手规划退休并进行储蓄，就越有可能充分享受退休生活。”
对于已退休群体而言，通货膨胀带来的压力尤为沉重，毕竟他们中许多人依赖固定收入维持生计，且美国老年贫困人口比例正不断攀升。社会保障福利在65岁以上人群收入中占比达31%，截至2024年底，近九成65岁及以上美国人领取社会保障金。
此外，每年的社会保障生活成本调整（COLA）也极有可能无法填补这一差额。尽管涨幅将于10月正式揭晓，但无党派倡导组织老年人联盟（The Senior Citizens League）预估，明年涨幅或仅在2.3%左右。
该组织称，若未来数月关税进一步推高通胀，社会保障生活成本调整幅度可能会上升。此调整是根据每年第三季度城市工薪阶层和文职人员消费价格指数来计算的，今年该调整幅度为2.5%，略低于2023年的3.2%，更远低于2022年因疫情引发的8.7%的峰值。
药品价格可能上涨
关税之所以可能对退休人员格外不利，其中一个关键原因在于药品价格可能飙升。美国从加拿大、中国、印度和墨西哥等国进口药品，而特朗普政府已对这些国家加征了更高的进口税，2024年，美国药品进口额高达2130亿美元。
老年人联盟执行董事夏侬·班顿（Shannon Benton）表示：“对多国商品广泛加征关税，可能对老年人的日常生活造成深远负面影响，这涵盖众多老年人依赖的药品与医疗设备的成本。此外，进口税或许还会使食品价格居高不下，增加汽车保险费用，进而引发通胀加剧等一系列连锁反应。”
根据布鲁金斯学会（Brookings Institution）卫生政策中心高级研究员玛尔塔·E·沃辛斯卡（Marta E. Wosińska）和哈佛大学陈曾熙公共卫生学院（Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health）教授大卫·布卢门撒尔（David Blumenthal）在《哈佛商业评论》（Harvard Business Review）上发表的一篇文章，关税在仿制药领域可能尤其适得其反。仿制药占据美国处方药九成份额。对许多人来说，仿制药比品牌药价格亲民得多，但对制造商来说，其利润空间要小得多。作者写道，许多仿制药在印度生产，不太可能将生产转移到美国。
沃辛斯卡和布卢门撒尔写道：“更有可能出现的情况是，由于利润率较低，且无法将关税成本转嫁给买家，我们会目睹外国仿制药制造商撤离美国市场。从长期来看，关税或许还会推高品牌药价格，而在很多情况下，消费者已经觉得品牌药价格难以承受了。”
施罗德的调查显示，老年人已然在为退休后的医疗费用苦苦挣扎——86%的人表示医疗费用高于预期，这也在消耗他们的储蓄。
尽管特朗普于5月12日签署了一项旨在降低药品价格的行政命令（美国处方药价格平均是其他发达国家的两到三倍），但摩根大通（JPMorgan）分析师在该行政命令发布后的一份报告中写道，这项政策“在实际推行时面临挑战”，因为它很可能需要国会通过相关法案。（财富中文网）
译者：中慧言-王芳
Though inflation has been cooling in recent months, it’s not enough to assuage the fears of retirees, almost all of whom are worried about spending down their savings sooner than planned. And as they stare down the possibility of higher prices linked to President Donald Trump’s wide-reaching tariff policies and a possibly lower Social Security cost-of-living adjustment, those fears could intensify.
That’s according to asset manager Schroders 2025 U.S. Retirement Survey, which finds that 92% of retirees report they are worried about inflation lessening the value of their assets, up from 89% last year and the top concern listed. Some 45% of respondents report their expenses in retirement are higher than they expected.
“Improving inflation data has not eased the fears of retirees,” says Deb Boyden, head of U.S. defined contribution at Schroders. “Rising prices on essentials like housing, food, and healthcare have significantly diminished the purchasing power and financial security of retirees.”
Relief, at least in the near term, looks unlikely. Inflation is threatening to rear its head again as economists warn of the after-effects of the Trump administration’s current tariff policies. Though it’s too soon to say exactly what the policies will end up being—including how high they will go, what countries they will be applied to, and to what goods—the imposed and scheduled tariffs could lead average tax increase of $1,190 in 2025 and $1,462 in 2026 on the average U.S. household, according to the right-leaning Tax Foundation. Indeed, stores like Walmart have already warned about higher prices to come.
That could stretch already thin budgets to the brink. Many near and current retirees, particularly on the lower end of the income spectrum, have a retirement savings gap, or a difference between what they have saved for their post-work life and what they will likely need. About 70% of all baby boomers who have yet to retire may not being able to replace their preretirement lifestyle, according to Vanguard.
“Given the uncertainty surrounding potential tariffs, retired Americans are understandably worried about the impact of rising prices on their savings,” says Boyden. “This widespread concern offers a cautionary tale for younger generations: the sooner you start planning and saving for retirement, the more likely you’ll be able to fully enjoy your golden years.”
For those who are already retired, inflation can be particularly onerous because many are living on a fixed income, and a growing share of seniors are living in poverty in the U.S. Social Security benefits make up 31% of the income of people over age 65, and nearly 9 in 10 Americans age 65 or older were collecting Social Security at the end of 2024.
And the annual Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) is not likely to make up much of the difference. Though the rise will be officially reported in October, the nonpartisan advocacy group The Senior Citizens League is estimating it will be around just 2.3% next year.
If tariffs do increase inflation more over the next few months, that COLA could grow, the organization says. The COLA is calculated based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers in the third quarter of each year. This year, the COLA was 2.5%, down slightly from 2023’s 3.2% and significantly from the pandemic-fueled height of 8.7% in 2022.
Drug prices could increase
One reason tariffs could be particularly harmful to retirees is because of the potential for drug prices to spike. The U.S. imports drugs from countries including Canada, China, India, and Mexico, all of which have had higher import taxes placed on them by the Trump administration. The U.S. imported $213 billion worth of drugs in 2024.
“Placing broad-based tariffs on goods from numerous countries could have a profoundly negative impact on the daily lives of seniors, including the costs of drugs and medical equipment that many seniors rely on,” says Shannon Benton, executive director of the Senior Citizens League. “It is also highly likely that import taxes will keep food prices high, increase auto insurance costs, and contribute to higher inflation, among other effects.”
Tariffs could backfire particularly when it comes to generic drugs, which account for 90% of U.S. prescriptions, according to a story published in the Harvard Business Review by Marta E. Wosińska, senior fellow at the Center on Health Policy at the Brookings Institution, and David Blumenthal, professor at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. These are far more affordable than name-brand drugs for many people, but they also have much smaller margins for manufacturers. Many are produced in India, and it is unlikely that manufacturing would be moved to the U.S., the authors write.
“What is more likely is that we will see foreign generic manufacturers leave the U.S. market because of low profit margins combined with their inability to pass through the costs of tariffs to buyers,” Wosińska and Blumenthal write. “Over the long term, tariffs may also increase the prices of branded drugs, which consumers already find unaffordable in many cases.”
And seniors are already struggling with their health care costs in retirement—86% say they are higher than expected, according to the Schroders survey, which eats away at savings.
Though Trump signed an executive order on May 12 aimed at lowering drug prices—prescription drug prices are two to three times higher in the U.S., on average, than they are in other developed nations—the policy would be “challenging to practically implement,” because it likely requires an act of Congress, JPMorgan analysts wrote in a note following the announcement.