随着中国在制造业能力上持续超越美国，关税可能并非美国提振工厂生产力的最佳策略。高盛分析师指出，美国制造业应借助人工智能和自动化技术来获取优势。
特朗普总统一直希望通过对美国制造业竞争对手征收高额关税，促使工厂岗位回流美国本土。然而，分析师在上周四发布的一份报告中称，这些关税对制造业回流的激励作用十分有限。相反，制造商应将自动化和日益普及的人工智能视为提升本土制造业的最佳契机。
分析师约瑟夫・布里格斯及其同事在报告中指出：“或许受近期机器人技术和生成式人工智能进步的推动，创新步伐有所加快，对于扭转制造业长期停滞的生产力来说，这仍是最有希望的催化剂。”
随着中国利用自动化和低廉的劳动力扩大出口规模，美国银行研究所（Bank of America Institute）发现，越来越多的证据表明美国制造业近期有所放缓。其中，来自美国人口普查局（U.S. Census Bureau）的数据显示，4月份制成耐用品的新订单减少了6.3%。美国供应管理协会制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）自3月以来亦出现下滑，进一步表明制造业在收缩。
高盛指出，美国的生产力问题是过去二十年来整体制造业生产力放缓的一个缩影。造成这一现象的原因包括全球金融危机后投资的回落，以及21世纪初出现的科技进步爆发式增长的放缓。
特朗普针对中国的关税计划旨在帮助美国从其经济竞争对手手中夺回制造业机会。尽管特朗普总统曾吹嘘达成了一项新的贸易协议，但并未披露其细节。然而，高盛在报告中指出，关税会增加消费者的生活成本，也并非制造商的万能解决方案。
报告称：“关税不太可能导致大规模的制造业回流，因为对于大多数产品而言，其他国家的生产成本仍远低于美国（即使考虑关税因素）。此外，在中国成本优势和产业政策的支持下，其出口可能会继续增长。”
工厂自动化的崛起
相反，分析师布里格斯表示，美国应关注其处于落后地位的另一个领域：自动化。
波士顿咨询公司亨德森研究所（BCG Henderson Institute）上月早些时候发布的一份报告显示，美国的工厂运营人工智能使用率落后于其他制造业强国。在BCG涉及1000家制造商的全球制造业调查中，仅有46%的美国受访者表示其工厂中有多个人工智能用例，这一比例低于62%的全球平均水平，也落后于中国的77%。
布里格斯在接受《财富》采访时表示：“我认为，人工智能够带来成本竞争力，是推动生产力增长的关键技术之一，但它在美国制造业领域并没有得到大范围的采用。”
布里格斯解释说，由于全球金融危机的 “后遗症”，美国此前并未在工厂自动化方面进行投资。不过，鉴于自动化和人工智能技术的日益普及且价格逐渐亲民，美国如今正面临绝佳的机会，应优先开展工厂技术升级。
像航空精密零件制造商MSP Manufacturing这样的公司已经开始做出调整。MSP总裁兼首席运营官约翰尼・古德最近发现了一款由人工智能驱动的软件，该软件可以为制造精密零件的机器编程，将每个零件的生产时间从一个半小时缩短到仅7分钟，外加15分钟的操作员打磨时长。
古德上周在接受《财富》杂志记者杰里米・卡恩采访时表示：“我对此感到十分震惊，这将是一项颠覆性的技术。从90分钟缩短到22分钟是一个巨大的进步，而且我们发现，随着软件使用熟练度的提升，耗时甚至会更低。”
终结制造业的放缓
高盛分析师承认，尽管自动化或将最大程度地推动美国制造业生产力的增长，但它不大可能独自解决更广泛的全球制造业放缓问题。布里格斯称这种放缓属于“历史罕见”，其主要原因可能源于科技行业的成熟。全球生产力回升的所有希望都将取决于人工智能和机器人技术的大规模进步与应用。
布里格斯表示：“创新步伐的大幅提升才是推动制造业生产力和增速显著提升的关键因素。然而，我们很难预测科技进步的拐点何时会出现。”
科技进步会为本土制造业生产力带来双重好处：提升工厂的投资力度，以及改进工厂中现有技术，以实现作业自动化。然而，由于未来人工智能和自动化应用的具体情况仍不是很明朗，因此我们难以预测美国是否真的能够逆转其制造业放缓趋势。
布里格斯说：“只有看到实实在在的进展之后，我们才能坚定地认为这种模式将成为一种首要驱动力。”（财富中文网）
译者：冯丰
审校：夏林
As China continues to outperform the United States in manufacturing capabilities, tariffs may not be the best strategy for America to boost factory productivity. Goldman Sachs analysts suggest that the U.S. should instead look to artificial intelligence (AI) and automation to gain an edge in manufacturing.
President Donald Trump has aimed to bring factory jobs back to American shores by imposing steep tariffs on U.S. manufacturing rivals. However, analysts stated in a note published on Thursday that such tariffs can only incentivize reshoring to a limited extent. Instead, manufacturers should regard automation and the increasingly accessible artificial intelligence as their best opportunity to boost domestic manufacturing.
“A pickup in the pace of innovation—potentially driven by recent advances in robotics and generative AI—thus remains the most likely catalyst to reverse the long-term stagnation in manufacturing productivity,” analyst Joseph Briggs and his colleagues wrote in the note.
As China leverages automation and cheaper labor to expand its export footprint, the Bank of America Institute has found growing evidence of a recent slowdown in U.S. manufacturing. This includes data from the U.S. Census Bureau showing that new orders for manufactured durable goods decreased by 6.3% in April. The Institute of Supply Management Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) has also declined since March, further indicating a contraction.
According to Goldman Sachs, the U.S.’s productivity challenges are part of a broader manufacturing productivity slowdown that has been ongoing for the past two decades. This slowdown is attributed to a pullback in investment following the global financial crisis, as well as a deceleration in the technological advancements that burst forth in the early 2000s.
Trump’s tariff plans for China—though the president has touted a new trade deal, he has not disclosed the specifics—aim to help the U.S. reclaim manufacturing opportunities from its economic rival. However, the bank argued in its note that while tariffs make consumers’ lives more expensive, they are not a cure-all for manufacturers.
“Tariffs are unlikely to lead to significant reshoring because, for most products, production costs in other countries remain well below those in the U.S. (even after accounting for tariffs). Moreover, China is likely to continue growing its exports, supported by cost advantages and industrial policy,” the note stated.
The Rise of Factory Automation
Instead, analyst Briggs said the U.S. should focus on another area where it is lagging: automation.
A report released earlier this month by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) Henderson Institute shows that the U.S. has trailed other manufacturing powerhouses in implementing AI in factory operations. In BCG’s Global Manufacturing Survey of 1,000 manufacturers, only 46% of U.S. respondents reported multiple use cases of AI in their plants. This falls short of the global average of 62% and lags behind China’s 77%.
“This is one of the key technologies that I think could drive productivity growth in a cost-competitive way,” Briggs told Fortune. “And we just haven’t seen this happen on a significant scale yet.”
Briggs explained that the U.S. did not previously invest in factory automation due to a “hangover” from the global financial crisis. However, given the growing prevalence and thus affordability of automation and AI, the U.S. now has a real opportunity to prioritize factory technology upgrades.
Companies like MSP Manufacturing, which specializes in aviation precision parts, have already started to adapt. Johnny Goode, president and COO of MSP, recently discovered an AI-powered software that can program the machines used to build precision parts. This has reduced production time from an hour and a half to just seven minutes per part, plus an additional 15 minutes for human operators to refine the parts.
“I was amazed, thinking this is going to be a game-changer,” Goode told Fortune’s Jeremy Kahn this week. “Going from 90 minutes to 22 minutes is a huge improvement, and we’ve seen even better results as we’ve become more proficient in using the software.”
Ending the Manufacturing Slowdown
Goldman Sachs analysts acknowledged that while automation offers the greatest potential for growth in U.S. manufacturing productivity, it is unlikely to single-handedly solve the broader global manufacturing slowdown. Briggs described the slowdown as “historically unusual,” with the maturation of the tech sector likely being the main cause. Any hope for a global uptick in productivity would depend on the mass advancement and adoption of AI and robotics on a large scale.
“The key factor that would drive a significant increase in manufacturing productivity and growth is a sharp acceleration in the pace of innovation,” Briggs said. “However, this kind of inflection point in technological progress is very difficult to predict.”
Technological advancements could bring a twofold benefit to domestic manufacturing productivity: driving factory investments and improving the technology installed in factories to automate tasks. However, with the specifics of future AI and automation applications still unclear, it is challenging to predict whether a reversal of the domestic manufacturing slowdown is truly feasible.
“We need to see tangible progress before we can have strong confidence that this dynamic will become a major driver,” Briggs said.