图片来源：Andrew Harnik—Getty Images
• 特斯拉（Tesla）股价跌至自2024年11月8日以来的最低点。与此同时，看好特斯拉的投资者已经发出警告称，从销量趋势来看，需求可能远不及预期。
随着特斯拉的市值自大选周以来首次跌破万亿美元关口，华尔街可能终于意识到，埃隆·马斯克的电动汽车公司第一季度业绩或将表现疲软。
最近几天，即便是最坚定的多头也频频警告，当特斯拉在四月初公布汽车销量时，交付量可能远低于当前市场预期，甚至可能低于去年同期的38.6万辆。
去年11月大选后，马斯克押注特朗普当选总统的先见之明曾大幅推高特斯拉股价，使其市值一度超过其他汽车企业的市值总和。但随着现实的冲击，这种脱离基本面、仅靠市场动能支撑的股价神话似乎已走到尽头。
未来基金（Future Fund）管理合伙人加里·布莱克在分析中指出：“非常明显，特斯拉一季度交付量将不及华尔街预期。”他预计交付量仅为38万辆，远低于当前市场预期的42.2万辆。
“看到马斯克在全球招致的反感，我对$TSLA的第一季度销量感到担忧。我们可能会看到五年多来最糟糕的第一季度表现。”
— squawksquare (@squawksquare) ，2025年2月24日
马斯克深陷多重争议漩涡
加里·布莱克的预测远低于分析师特洛伊·特斯莱克预测的40万辆以下，后者专注于追踪特斯拉的汽车产量和交付量，是预测最准确的分析师之一。周二，特斯莱克又带来了更多坏消息。
他写道：“根据机动车管理局的最新车辆识别码数据，本季度Cybertruck产量低于过去三个季度中的任何时期。”这意味着这款备受瞩目却定价高昂的车型在上市仅一年后即出现产量下滑，令人大失所望。
多头的担忧不难理解。周二公布的数据显示，特斯拉一月份的欧洲销量遭遇断崖式下跌。在连续两年的高速增长后，新车注册量同比近乎腰斩，使特斯拉在欧洲电动车市场的份额从2024年1月的15%，骤降至上月的6%。
品牌形象危机同样不容忽视，因为作为公司形象代言人的马斯克近期深陷争议。从通过大规模裁员对联邦政府瘦身的激进主张，到涉及多个领域的政治利益冲突，他引发的争议不断。从被曝与不同女性生育非婚子女的私生活风波，到与三名宇航员发生离奇争执并呼吁提前摧毁国际空间站的怪异言行，再到自曝曾夸大游戏水平的蹊跷谎言，这些事件令各派批评者瞠目结舌。
在中国市场，即便尚不确定这些丑闻是否已传播开来，最新周度保险数据显示，特斯拉本季度迄今销量同比下滑11%。
史无前例的全线停产升级
多头认为，当前困境的主因并非马斯克近期引发的争议，而是特斯拉临时决定同时关闭全球四大工厂进行产线升级。下月即将推出新版Model Y，该系列车型占公司总销量的三分之二。
首席财务官瓦伊巴夫·塔内贾上月警告称，产线升级将造成一季度“减产数周”。
他表示：“尽管我们对团队快速提升产能充满信心，但必须指出这是前所未有的调整。我们从未听说有车企会对全球最畅销车型实施所有工厂同步升级。”
金融咨询公司Halter Ferguson Financial的股票策略师马特·史密斯指出，市场尚未充分消化此次停产对运营的冲击。此类大规模停工确实非同寻常。
特斯拉并未回应置评请求。
面对网络上疯传的特斯拉财产遭破坏的图片，史密斯担心低迷的销售数据可能会不当地加剧人们对核心汽车业务加速衰退的担忧。这正是Halter Ferguson选择在本季度初就着手管理市场预期的原因。
史密斯表示：“当交付量严重不及预期与这类负面新闻叠加时，市场会产生错误联想。”（财富中文网）
译者：刘进龙
审校：汪皓
• Tesla shares have dropped to their lowest level since Nov. 8, 2024. Meanwhile, Tesla bulls are already warning that sales trends predict demand could prove significantly weaker than anticipated.
With Tesla crashing below $1 trillion for the first time since election week, Wall Street may finally be waking up to the likelihood of a weak first quarter for Elon Musk’s electric-car company.
Even diehard bulls have been warning in recent days that deliveries could fall well short of current consensus when Tesla reports vehicle sales in early April—and potentially below last year’s 386,000 vehicles as well.
Elon Musk’s prescient bet on a Trump presidency launched the stock into the stratosphere after the November election, with Tesla briefly becoming more valuable than the rest of the auto industry put together. But its capacity to decouple itself from fundamentals and trade on momentum appears to have come to an end as reality hits.
“It’s very clear Tesla 1Q deliveries are going to miss [Wall Street] expectations,” wrote Future Fund managing partner Gary Black, estimating just 380,000 vehicles versus the current consensus of 422,000.
I am terrified to see what $TSLA Q1 sales will be given all of Elon’s hate around the world. We might see the worst Q1 sales in over 5 years. pic.twitter.com/QpjTzSGYi0
— squawksquare (@squawksquare) February 24, 2025
Numerous controversies around Musk
Gary Black’s forecast is substantially lower than the sub-400,000 number estimated by Troy Teslike, one of the most accurate analysts who tracks vehicle production and deliveries. Teslike had more bad news on Tuesday.
“Based on the latest DMV vehicle identification numbers, Cybertruck production this quarter is lower than any of the last three,” he wrote. That would mean output is dropping after little more than a year, a major disappointment for the prestigious yet expensive model.
It’s easy to see why bulls are concerned. Data published Tuesday showed the full extent of Tesla’s European sales crash in January. After two straight years of soaring growth, registrations nearly halved year on year, reducing Tesla’s share of the European EV market to just 6% last month; it was 15% in January 2024.
Then there’s Tesla’s own branding problem, since Musk is the face of the company. His attempt to radically shrink the federal government through mass layoffs and numerous political conflicts of interest have sparked controversy. But critics on both sides of the aisle have been stunned by reports of Musk having another out-of-wedlock child with a different mother, a bizarre feud with three astronauts that prompted him to call for the early destruction of the International Space Station, and his admission he even strangely lied about how good a gamer he is.
Even in China, where it’s unclear if any of these scandals are even known of, volumes are so far tracking 11% lower than the same period a year earlier, according to the latest weekly China insurance data.
Unprecedented voluntary shutdown in production
A big reason for this weakeness, bulls argue, is not Musk’s recent controversies but rather Tesla’s decision to temporarily shut down all four vehicle manufacturing plants simultaneously for retooling. Next month comes the launch of a newer version of the Model Y, which accounts for two out of every three vehicles.
Last month, finance chief Vaibhav Taneja warned the change would result in “several weeks of lost production” during the first quarter.
“While we feel confident in our teams’ abilities to ramp production quickly, note that it is an unprecedented change, and we are not aware of anybody else taking the bestselling car on the planet and updating all factories at the same time,” he said.
Halter Ferguson Financial equity strategist Matt Smith argues that the market isn’t sufficiently factoring in the resulting disruption to Tesla’s operations. This kind of wide-scale shutdown is indeed unusual.
Tesla did not respond to a Fortune request for comment.
Given all the viral images of vandalized Tesla property spreading online, Smith fears seemingly poor sales could unfairly fuel fears the decline in its core auto business accelerating. That’s why Halter Ferguson is ready to manage expectations so early into the quarter.
“If you couple these anecdotal stories like that with a massive miss on deliveries,” said Smith, “it will get misunderstood.”