2025年4月10日，美国华盛顿特区，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特在白宫出席内阁会议。图片来源：Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
4月震撼市场的“抛售美国”潮，可能已经对投资者持有美国政府长期债务的意愿产生了持久的影响。这些长期债务是美国政府最重要的赤字融资工具。
对于贝莱德集团（BlackRock Inc.）、布兰迪全球投资管理公司（Brandywine Global Investment Management）和先锋集团（Vanguard Group Inc.）的债券经理们而言，症结在于：在唐纳德·特朗普执政百日之际，他所带来的未知数越来越多，迫使交易员除了利率路径之外，还必须关注一系列广泛的问题。
例如，特朗普的贸易战、减税议程和毫无章法的政策方向，对已然疲软的经济增长、顽固通胀与庞大财政赤字意味着什么？他是否会再次威胁要解雇美联储（Federal Reserve）主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔？是否正在积极寻求美元贬值？
由此导致投资者的风险意识增强，使债券买家对美国政府债券传统的避险资产地位产生了质疑，并要求更长期限的债券提供更高收益率。从某种程度说，以“期限溢价”这一指标衡量，当前风险补偿水平正逼近2014年以来的峰值。
布兰迪的基金经理杰克·麦金泰尔表示：“我们处在一个新的世界秩序。即便特朗普在关税问题上让步，我认为不确定性仍将高企。这意味着期限溢价将持续处于高位。”麦金泰尔所在的团队管理着630亿美元资产。
当然，若特朗普达成贸易协议或继续释放谨慎对待债市崩盘的信号，能在一定程度上减缓投资者对美债的焦虑。但在美国财长斯科特·贝森特即将公布最新发债计划之际，他又多了一项重任，那就是安抚被多重担忧困扰的投资者。
所有的不确定性使麦金泰尔保持与基准持平的中性仓位，也改变了他对经济放缓时期长债表现的预判。简言之，他认为届时收益率将高于他此前的预期。
投资者感到焦虑
但这并不代表投资者正在大规模远离美债。摩根资产管理（JPMorgan Asset Management ）认为美债的表现优于欧债。4月30年期债券拍卖显示，只要价格合适，对这类美债的需求依旧存在。这缓解了对“买方罢工”的担忧，且长债的收益率已从近期高点回落。
但市场情绪依然脆弱。例如，尽管特朗普上周称“无意”解雇鲍威尔，但他对美联储主席的批评仍令投资者担忧央行独立性。
太平洋投资管理公司（Pacific Investment Management Co.）认为，4月美元、美股和美债的三重疲软更像是在新兴市场可能出现的情况。这家资产管理规模高达2万亿美元的债券管理公司也在增持美债，但其持仓严格控制收益率曲线的延伸范围，目前侧重于5至10年期的美债。
还有其他信号表明投资者对长债感到焦虑：通胀调整后30年期美债收益率本月触及金融危机以来的最高点。虽然后来有所回落，但收益率仍高于4月2日特朗普宣布全面加征关税时的水平。
先锋集团认为，目前长期债券内嵌的一种额外风险补偿有可能会进一步增加，尤其是当财政赤字扩大导致发债量攀升时。
先锋集团管理的资产高达约10万亿美元。其固定收益产品高级经理丽贝卡·文特尔表示：“期限溢价虽不再处于低位，但也算不上历史高位。考虑到财政风险背景，溢价可能随时间推移逐步增加。”
先锋集团预计今年美国经济增幅将跌破1%，创2020年来新低，文特尔称”这对美国预算赤字而言绝不是好兆头”。
新篇章
当财政部本周公布最新的发债计划时，华尔街预计未来三个月拍卖规模将保持稳定。随着共和党就如何支付减税法案展开辩论，财政叙事将成为期限溢价的下一个篇章。
溢价增加之所以重要，是因为在政府每年支付超万亿美元利息的当下，每个基点的收益率攀升都关系重大。
管理近12万亿美元资产的贝莱德指出，4月早些时候，美国资产普遍下跌凸显了该公司对后疫情时代政府财政状况的担忧，以及美债对投资者信心波动的脆弱性。
贝莱德智库（BlackRock Investment Institute）在一份报告中表示，在美国市场发生的抛售潮“表明投资者要求获得更高的风险补偿，这暴露出当前市场平衡状态的脆弱性”。
DWS Americas固定收益产品主管乔治·卡特兰波认为，考虑到白宫在关税等政策上释放出的信号前后矛盾，期限溢价的下降幅度只能到此为止。
他表示：“待政策明朗化且协议达成后，溢价或将下降，但由于财政问题始终无法解决，因此期限溢价难以回到过去十年的低位。” （财富中文网）
译者：刘进龙
审校：汪皓
The “Sell America” trade that gripped markets this month has left a potentially lasting dent in investors’ willingness to hold the US government’s longest-maturity debt, a mainstay of its deficit-financing toolkit.
For bond managers at BlackRock Inc., Brandywine Global Investment Management and Vanguard Group Inc., the problem is that as President Donald Trump approaches his 100th day in office, he has generated a growing list of unknowns, forcing traders to focus on a broad array of issues beyond just the likely path of interest rates.
To name a few: What do Trump’s trade war, tax-cut agenda and scattergun policymaking mean for already weakening economic growth, sticky inflation and massive fiscal shortfalls? Will he again threaten to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell? Is he actively seeking a weaker dollar?
The result is a heightened notion of risk that’s leading bond buyers to question the traditional haven status of US government debt and require higher yields on longer maturities. By one measure, that added cushion, which traders dub the term premium, is around the highest since 2014.
“We’re in a new world order,” said Jack McIntyre, who with his team oversees $63 billion at Brandywine. “Even if Trump backpedals on the tariffs, I think uncertainty levels are still going to be elevated. So that means term premium stays elevated.”
Of course, some of the angst around Treasuries could well fade should Trump strike trade deals or continue to signal that he’s wary of a full-fledged rout in bonds. But as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent prepares to unveil the government’s latest borrowing plans on Wednesday, he faces the added task of calming investors grappling with a growing host of concerns.
All the uncertainty is leading McIntyre to stay roughly neutral to his benchmark. It’s also changing how he sees the long bond behaving in the event of an economic slowdown. In a nutshell, he says yields would remain higher than he’d otherwise expect.
No Flight
It’s not as if investors are fleeing Treasuries wholesale. JPMorgan Asset Management sees them as a better bet than European government bonds. And this month’s 30-year Treasury auction showed that there’s appetite for the maturity — at the right price. The result allayed fears of a buyers’ strike, and long-bond yields have eased back from their recent peak.
Sentiment, however, remains fragile. For example, while Trump last week said he had “no intention” of firing Powell, his criticism of the Fed chair leaves some investors worrying about the central bank’s independence.
Pacific Investment Management Co., which likened this month’s episode of triple-weakening in the dollar, US stocks and Treasuries to something one might expect in emerging markets, has also been buying Treasuries. But it’s been limiting how far out the yield curve it goes. The $2 trillion bond manager currently favors maturities from five to 10 years.
There are other signs of investor anxiety around the long bond: After adjusting for inflation, 30-year yields this month reached the highest since the financial crisis. Although they’ve since receded, they remain higher than when Trump announced his plan for sweeping tariffs on April 2.
For Vanguard, there’s scope for the extra insurance being built into longer maturities to swell further, especially if widening federal deficits lead to more bond issuance.
“Term premium is no longer low, but you can’t make a case that it’s historically high,” said Rebecca Venter, senior fixed-income product manager at the roughly $10 trillion asset manager. “When you see the fiscal risks in the background, term premium can build over time.”
Vanguard expects US growth below 1% this year, which would be the weakest since 2020, and Venter said “that does not bode well for the US budget deficit.”
Next Chapter
When the Treasury releases its latest bond issuance plans this week, Wall Street expects steady auction sizes over the next three months. With Republicans debating how to pay for their tax-cut bill, the fiscal story is the next chapter for the term premium.
One reason a fatter premium matters is that every fraction of a percentage point in extra yield counts for the government at a time when it’s paying upwards of $1 trillion per year to service its debt.
At BlackRock, which oversees almost $12 trillion, the broad slide across US asset classes earlier this month magnified its concerns around the government’s finances post-pandemic, and how US bonds were vulnerable to shifting investor confidence.
The selloff in US markets “suggests a desire for more compensation for risk and brought that fragile equilibrium into sharp focus,” BlackRock Investment Institute said in a report.
George Catrambone at DWS Americas sees how the term premium might recede, but only so far, given all the shifting signals out of the White House on tariffs and other policies.
“Once greater clarity is given and agreements are reached, I’d expect term premium to abate,” said the firm’s head of fixed income. “Although not back to the lows of the past decade as fiscal will be an ever-present concern.”