图片来源：Qilai Shen—Bloomberg via Getty Images
• 私募股权巨头阿波罗公司（Apollo）首席经济学家托尔斯滕·斯洛克（Torsten Sløk）表示，随着中美贸易大幅下滑，小企业将受到重创。众多独立玩具店、五金店及服装店都依赖廉价进口商品，而员工规模在500人及以下的企业，其雇员数量占美国私营企业员工总数的近一半。
中美间贸易正呈现出断崖式下滑态势。大量空置的集装箱预示着，在不久之后，美国商店的货架将面临缺货的困境，甚至可能引发物价飞涨与失业率攀升的双重危机。唐纳德·特朗普此时却高调宣扬世界两大经济体间的贸易协议谈判，然而，中国政府明确否认已开展任何相关谈判。
私募股权巨头阿波罗公司首席经济学家托尔斯滕·斯洛克表示，3月下旬和4月初，自中国启程的集装箱航运量激增，这大概率是企业为赶在关税生效前抢运货物所致。然而，在4月9日特朗普对中国进口商品征收的所有关税生效后不久，航运量就呈直线下滑趋势。斯洛克表示，中国货船驶抵美国港口大约需20至30天，而货物从港口运送至美国各地商店与工厂，还需额外1至10天时间。
他向《财富》杂志透露：“大约在5月中旬，我们将开始目睹更为显著的影响——由于贸易形势持续恶化，商品不再运达，商店货架将逐渐空置。”
除对众多电子产品给予较大幅度的豁免外，美国对多数中国商品征收的关税已高达145%。作为回应，中国对多数美国进口商品加征125%的关税，不过在上周五早些时候，中国也针对半导体、航空等行业出台了豁免政策。
根据美国贸易代表办公室（United States Trade Representative）的数据，中国是美国第三大贸易伙伴，2024年美国自中国进口额近4400亿美元。与此同时，根据追踪主要国际贸易航线标准40英尺集装箱现货价格的波罗的海运价指数（Freightos Baltic Index），自1月初以来，航运成本已近乎腰斩。
换言之，需求下降已对该行业收入造成冲击。
斯洛克在上周五的一份报告中表示，货运与物流行业的大规模裁员可能会进一步拖累经济。
他写道：“此外，我们很快将目睹通货膨胀进一步加剧，因为在相当多产品类别中，中国是美国市场部分商品的主要供应方。”
他补充道，这一局面对于独立玩具店、五金店和服装店等小企业而言，冲击尤为严重。他进一步解释，多数小企业依赖进口廉价商品维持运营，且缺乏大企业用以抵御风险的营运资金与流动资金储备。
斯洛克指出：“与小企业相比，大企业资产负债表更为灵活、反应更为敏捷且产品线多样，因此更容易做出调整。”
然而，就整体经济健康状况而言，对夫妻店的冲击也不容小觑。根据美国小企业管理局（U.S. Small Business Administration）的数据，2023年，小企业吸纳约6200万美国就业者，占私营部门劳动力的46%以上。该机构的数据还显示，在1995年至2021年期间，员工规模500人及以下的企业贡献了近三分之二的总净就业增长。
与此同时，各类规模企业都不得不应对中美双方矛盾信息带来的额外不确定性。特朗普与财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）均称，达成新贸易协议后，会降低关税。特朗普坚称谈判正在推进，然而中方对此予以否认，并表示除非美国撤销“单边”举措，否则不会开启谈判。
斯洛克指出，这种焦虑情绪在近期多家地区性联邦储备银行的调查中显露无遗，部分调查结果显示新订单急剧下滑，资本支出计划也陷入停滞。他进一步补充道，西南航空公司（Southwest）、Chipotle以及百事公司（PepsiCo,）等企业在近期财报电话会议上均发出警示，忧心忡忡的消费者已开始缩减开支。
总之，他担心情况会进一步恶化。（财富中文网）
译者：中慧言-王芳
• As trade between the U.S. and China collapses, small businesses will be hit hard, according to Torsten Sløk, chief economist at private equity giant Apollo. Many independent toy, hardware, and clothing stores rely on cheap imports, and firms with 500 employees or less account for nearly half of America’s private workforce.
Trade between the U.S. and China is falling off a cliff. Vacant shipping containers will soon mean empty shelves—and perhaps the dreaded combo of higher prices and unemployment. President Donald Trump is touting talks of a trade deal between the world’s two biggest economies, but Beijing denies any negotiations have taken place.
Container shipping from China spiked in late March and early April as firms presumably tried to front-run tariffs, said Torsten Sløk, chief economist at private equity giant Apollo. However, it went into free fall soon after April 9, when the full slate of Trump’s taxes on Chinese imports went into effect. It takes about 20-to-30 days for Chinese cargo ships to reach U.S. ports, Sløk said, and another one-to-10 days for those goods to reach stores and factories across the country.
“It’s probably sometime by the middle of May that we should begin to see more significant impacts of this in the form of empty shelves in stores with goods that are no longer arriving,” he told Fortune, “because [of trade] collapsing the way it is.”
The U.S. tariff on most Chinese goods, barring a significant carve-out for many electronics, sits at 145%. China has retaliated with a 125% tax on most U.S. imports but also rolled out exceptions for semiconductors and other sectors, like aviation, early Friday.
China is America’s third-largest trading partner, accounting for nearly $440 billion worth of U.S. imports in 2024, according to the United States Trade Representative. Meanwhile, shipping costs have roughly been cut in half since early January, per the Freightos Baltic Index, which tracks the spot rates for standard 40-foot containers across major international trade lanes.
In other words, reduced demand is already hitting the industry’s revenues.
Significant layoffs in trucking and logistics could further drag down the economy, Sløk said in a note Friday morning.
“In addition, we will soon begin to see higher inflation because there are a significant number of product categories where China is the main provider of certain goods into the U.S. market,” he wrote.
That’s especially devastating for small businesses like independent toy, hardware, and clothing stores, he added. Most smaller firms rely on importing cheap goods to stay afloat, he explained, and do not have the working capital, or liquidity, that bigger businesses can leverage to weather the storm.
“Large businesses have flexible balance sheets,” Sløk said. “They are more nimble. They have several product lines and are, therefore, able to easier adjust relative to a small business.”
Mom-and-pop shops loom almost just as large, however, when it comes to the health of the broader economy. Small businesses employed about 62 million Americans in 2023, or more than 46% of the private-sector workforce, according to the U.S. Small Business Administration. These companies, which have 500 employees or less on the payroll, also accounted for nearly two-thirds of net job growth from 1995 to 2021, per the agency.
Firms of all sizes, meanwhile, must deal with added uncertainty caused by the opposing messaging coming from Washington and Beijing. Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have signaled tariffs will come down when a new trade agreement is reached. The president has insisted such talks are taking place, but China has denied those claims, saying it will not come to the table unless the U.S. walks back its “unilateral” measures.
The anxiety is apparent, Sløk said, in recent surveys from regional Federal Reserve banks, some of which showed big declines in new orders and plans for capital expenditures at a standstill. Companies like Southwest, Chipotle, and PepsiCo, he added, have warned on their most recent earnings calls that nervous consumers are starting to cut back.
In short, he’s worried things could get worse.