荷兰半导体设备巨头ASML本周三股价暴跌11%，此前该公司宣称无法确定2026年能否实现增长。此次股价暴跌导致公司市值蒸发逾300亿美元，并引发全球科技市场震动，投资者正消化这一消息对更广泛的半导体和人工智能行业的影响。此次抛售发生在ASML公布第二季度财报之后，彼时其营收和净利润均超预期，订单额达64亿美元。然而，首席执行官克里斯托夫·富凯的评论却让这份亮眼业绩黯然失色：“尽管我们仍在为2026年实现增长做准备，但现阶段无法确认。”他指出，宏观经济和地缘政治不确定性加剧，尤其是半导体设备面临新关税威胁。
精明的投资者向来通过ASML的动态判断科技周期的健康状况；此次增长预警可能是市场释放的早期信号——人工智能和半导体的超级周期即将触顶，或至少正为动荡做准备。
为何ASML的前景比大多数公司更重要
这绝非仅是公司层面的事件——可能是全球科技和人工智能生态系统的“预警信号”。原因何在？ASML是全球唯一的极紫外（EUV）光刻机供应商——这种超精密制造设备使尖端半导体的生产成为可能。每款最先进的人工智能加速器、每颗为生成式人工智能提供动力的数据中心芯片，其技术源头都可追溯至ASML的设备。
因此，即便ASML当前盈利超预期，却仍向市场表示“无法确认”2026年的增长前景，这不仅表明其对自身产品线持谨慎态度，更可能预示着电子供应链中最关乎未来的环节即将迎来拐点。换言之，倘若ASML的订单量放缓，那就意味着下游芯片制造商可能预期需求疲软、对资本支出回报的不确定性上升，或是在为政策阻力做准备。
背景至关重要：当前人工智能需求激增，但2025年，这一趋势正遭遇宏观不确定性的冲击——尤其是特朗普政府威胁对欧盟加征关税、中国实施出口限制，以及历史性科技投资浪潮后资本支出疲软。ASML的交货周期为12至18个月——当前订单反映的是对2026年全球芯片需求的信心。倘若这种信心出现动摇，将对整个创新经济产生连锁反应。
ASML绝非寻常意义上的科技股，而是全球半导体供应链的关键所在。该公司是全球唯一的极紫外光刻机供应商，这种关键设备为生产最先进芯片提供了支撑，而该类芯片广泛应用于人工智能加速器、智能手机及数据中心等场景。
增长预警背后的原因是什么？
多重因素交织叠加，为ASML的前景蒙上了阴影。关税不确定性便是其中之一，特朗普威胁对包括半导体设备在内的欧洲进口商品加征30%的关税，这让ASML的客户陷入不安。该公司发出警示，对运往美国的全新系统及零部件加征关税，再加上可能引发的报复性措施，或将直接冲击其毛利率，致使客户的投资决策推迟。
持续的贸易争端和出口管制，尤其是涉及中国和美国，使得ASML难以预测需求。客户愈发谨慎，部分客户可能推迟或削减订单。尽管第二季度订单表现强劲，但巴克莱（Barclays）分析师指出，ASML需将当前的订单增速提升一倍，方能实现此前设定的2026年增长目标。2026年的订单积压覆盖率已降至三年来的最低水平，这引发了对短期增长动能的质疑。
市场反应
市场反应迅速且剧烈：ASML股价暴跌11%，创下自2024年10月以来的最大单日跌幅纪录（彼时因第三季度财报不及预期，股价下跌16%）。周三的抛售不仅拖累了整个欧洲科技板块，还对美国半导体设备同行造成冲击，如泛林（Lam Research）和应用材料公司（Applied Materials）。
相比之下，得益于美国对华出口政策利好消息，人工智能芯片制造商如英伟达（Nvidia）和AMD股价上涨，这凸显了芯片设计公司与设备供应链之间的差异。（财富中文网）
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译者：中慧言-王芳
Shares of ASML, the Dutch semiconductor equipment giant, tumbled 11% on Wednesday after the company announced it could no longer confirm that it will grow in 2026. The drop wiped out over $30 billion in market value and sent shockwaves through global tech markets, as investors digested the implications for the broader semiconductor and AI industries. The selloff followed ASML’s second-quarter earnings report, which beat expectations on revenue and net profit, with robust bookings of $6.4 billion. However, CEO Christophe Fouquet’s comments overshadowed the strong results: “While we still prepare for growth in 2026, we cannot confirm it at this stage,” he said, citing escalating macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, especially the threat of new tariffs on semiconductor equipment.
Smart money watches ASML for signals on the tech cycle’s health; a growth warning here may be the market’s early clue that the AI and semiconductor supercycle is reaching a plateau—or at least preparing for turbulence.
Why ASML’s outlook matters more than most
This isn’t just a company-specific event—it could be a canary in the coal mine for the global tech and AI ecosystem. Why? ASML is the world’s exclusive supplier of EUV lithography machines—the ultra-precise fabrication equipment that makes cutting-edge semiconductors possible. Every state-of-the-art AI accelerator, every data-center chip that powers generative AI, traces its technological lineage back to ASML’s tools.
So when ASML tells the market it “cannot confirm” growth for 2026—despite beating on current earnings—it’s signaling not just caution about its own pipeline, but a potential inflection point in the most future-critical segment of the electronics supply chain. In other words: if ASML’s order book slows, it means that downstream chipmakers may anticipate softer demand, have rising uncertainty about capex returns, or are bracing for policy headwinds.
The context matters: This is a moment when AI demand has been surging, but in 2025 it’s now colliding with macro uncertainty, particularly driven by U.S.-EU tariff threats, China export restrictions, and capex fatigue after a historic tech investment wave. ASML’s lead times are 12 to 18 months—with orders today reflecting confidence in global chip demand well into 2026. If that confidence is wavering, it ripples through the entire innovation economy.
ASML is not just another tech stock—it is the linchpin of the global semiconductor supply chain. The company is the world’s sole supplier of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, the critical technology that enables the production of the most advanced chips used in everything from AI accelerators to smartphones and data centers.
What’s behind the growth warning?
Several factors converged to cloud ASML’s outlook. One was tariff uncertainty. President Trump’s threat of 30% tariffs on European imports, including semiconductor equipment, has rattled ASML’s customers. The company warned that tariffs on new systems and parts shipped to the U.S., as well as possible retaliatory measures, could directly hit its gross margins and delay customer investment decisions.
Ongoing trade disputes and export controls, especially involving China and the U.S., have made it harder for ASML to forecast demand. Clients are increasingly cautious, with some potentially postponing or scaling back orders. While Q2 bookings were strong, Barclays analysts noted ASML would need to double its current order pace to meet previous 2026 growth forecasts. The backlog coverage for 2026 is at its lowest in three years, raising doubts about near-term momentum.
Market reaction
The market’s response was swift and severe as ASML shares fell 11%, their steepest single-day drop since October 2024, when a disappointing third-quarter earnings report led to the stock price falling 16%. Wednesday’s selloff dragged down the broader European tech sector and hit U.S. semiconductor equipment peers such as Lam Research and Applied Materials.
In contrast, AI chipmakers such as Nvidia and AMD rose, buoyed by positive news on U.S. export policy to China, highlighting a divergence between chip designers and the equipment supply chain.